2015年3月10日火曜日

機密文書「英米合作経済抗戦力調査(其二)








日米開戦前に設立された、敵国の経済的な弱点を探る情報機関「陸軍省戦争経済研究班」(通称、秋丸機関)がまとめた機密報告書「英米合作経済抗戦力調査」のうち、所在が不明だった第二巻「其二(そのに)」が見つかった。英米両国の強大さを指摘するデータを示す一方で開戦回避の提言はなく、研究に参加した研究者たちが軍部の意向を無視できなかった事情がうかがえる。 

 陸軍の秋丸次朗主計中佐が率いた同機関の活動は、当時の日本の海外経済調査として最大規模。「其二」はA5判三百二十二ページの分量で表紙に「極秘」との印がある。英米両国を中心に各国の経済情報を収集・分析し、税金や国債発行で調達できる軍事費も推計。「英米の造船能力以上の船を撃沈すれば勝算がある」と戦略も提言した「其一」(百四ページ)の裏付け情報となっている。牧野邦昭・摂南大経済学部准教授(日本経済思想史)が東京の古書店で発見、今年二月、東大経済学図書館に寄贈した。

 米国について「石油埋蔵量が世界の70%を占め、資源を有せざる諸国に対する経済戦の武器となる」として石油輸出禁止が有力な手段となる可能性を分析。「日本の輸出生糸の86%を英米が消費し、輸入禁止で日本に打撃を与えられる」とも明記した。当時の日本は米英に生糸を輸出して得た外貨で、原油の七割超を米国から買う米英依存型の経済構造になっており、米英を敵に回す戦争の困難さを予見する内容。実際に米国のその後の石油禁輸で日本は窮地に陥った。

 しかしその一方で、日本の同盟国であるドイツと戦う英国が石油を輸入に頼っている点を挙げて「米国の石油を英国に輸送しなければならず輸送力が問題」と指摘。米英の船の使用年数や船員の熟練度を調べ「船舶不足が弱点」とした。

 数々の記述から、米英との戦争は圧倒的に不利であることを示唆しているが、明確に「勝算がない」とは言及していない。

 報告書は「其一」と合わせ一九四一年夏、陸軍上層部に報告されたとみられる。日本は同年七月末、米国が態度を硬化させ年末の日米開戦のきっかけとなった「南部仏印進駐」(仏領インドシナ南部への侵攻)に踏み切っており、「軍が(開戦を否定しない)報告書を都合良く解釈し戦線拡大を後押しした可能性がある」(牧野准教授)との見方もある。
◆「ずるずると戦争」教訓に

 原朗(あきら)東大名誉教授(現代日本経済史)の話 研究者たちがずっと探していた其二は、軍機関という立場的な制約の中、各国の経済力を正確に分析しようと努力した秋丸機関の実態を示す貴重な資料だ。ただ同時に、その限界も示している。社会全体がずるずると戦争へ動いていくのを、誰も止められなかったことが現在への教訓になる。

 <秋丸機関> 1940年1月、陸軍が経済面から軍事戦略を練るため設立。当時トップレベルの経済学者だった有沢弘巳氏(後の東大名誉教授)、中山伊知郎氏(東京商大教授・後に一橋大名誉教授)や企業人ら100人程度が動員され米英、ドイツなど各班に分かれ分析。42年秋ごろ解散したもよう。「英米合作経済抗戦力調査」は戦後復興でも政府の経済顧問を務めた有沢氏が中心でまとめたとみられる。軍指示で焼却されたといわれていたが、「其一」が有沢氏が残した蔵書から91年に見つかった。
http://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/economics/news/CK2015030902000139.html

まあ要するに最初から負け戦だと分かってたわけですよ。(爆wwwwwwww


6 件のコメント:

匿名 さんのコメント...

マリアの日に始まってマリアの日に終わったのDeath

匿名 さんのコメント...

Milestones: 1969–1976 - Office of the Historian
https://history.state.gov/milestones/1969-1976/oil-embargo
During the 1973 Arab-Israeli War, Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) imposed ... By 1973, OPEC had demanded that foreign oil corporations increase prices and cede greater shares of revenue to their ... President Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger recognized the constraints inherent in peace talks to end the war ... The declining leverage of the U.S. and European oil corporations (the “Seven Sisters”) that had hitherto stabilized the ...

1973 oil crisis - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis
The 1973 oil crisis began in October 1973 when the members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries proclaimed an oil ... The 1973 "oil price shock", with the accompanying 1973–74 stock market crash, was regarded as the first discrete event since ... OPEC confined its activities to gaining a larger share of the profits generated by oil companies and greater control over .... February 11—Kissinger unveils the Project Independence plan for US energy independence.

THE RESOURCES OF ECONOMICS: Making the 1973 Oil Crisis ...
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17530350.2010.494123?...
2010/09/04 - First, it is difficult to know how much of the increase in the price of oil in the winter of 1973–1974 was ..... quotas and import controls in the United States, and by a cartel agreement made between the seven major international oil corporations in 1929. .... 1973 and proposed a joint statement on the principles of a peace settlement, which Nixon rejected (Kissinger ... The Seven Sisters: The Great Oil Companies and the World they Made, London: Hodder and Stoughton.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_world_oil_market_chronology
共に迷子

匿名 さんのコメント...

THE RESOURCES OF ECONOMICS: Making the 1973 Oil Crisis ...
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17530350.2010.494123?...
2010/09/04 - Yet the events of 1973–1974 also triggered the unraveling of Keynesian economics, attacked by market ..... quotas and import controls in the United States, and by a cartel agreement made between the seven major international oil corporations in 1929. ..... The Seven Sisters: The Great Oil Companies and the World they Made, London: Hodder and Stoughton. ..... Kissinger , H. 1973 'Memorandum for the President's files, President's meeting with General Secretary ...

The Future of Power - 66 ページ - Google ブック検索結果
https://books.google.co.jp/books?isbn=1586488929 -
Joseph S. Nye, Jr. - 2011 - ‎Political Science
The seven sisters were joined by “little cousins” when new transnational corporations entered the oil market. ... Today, the six largest transnational corporations control only 5 percent of world oil reserves; state-owned companies control the ... The Middle East war of 1973 gave OPEC a boost, a signal that now it could use its power. ... At one point in the crisis, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said that if the United States faced “strangulation,” military force might have to be used.

Henry Kissinger – 15 Minute History
https://15minutehistory.org/tag/henry-kissinger/feed/
2014/01/15 - Another way to think about this is to say that the Arab oil boycott of 1973 and the energy crisis are not synonyms. ... a campaign to try to wrest pricing and production control from the grip of the so-called Seven Sisters, the multinational oil companies. ... that is against the proper functioning of the free market and he also makes a parallel argument that the free market was the only system ...

Seven Sisters (oil companies) - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seven_Sisters_(oil_companies)
"Seven Sisters" was a common term for the seven multinational oil companies of the "Consortium for Iran" oligopoly or cartel, which dominated ... Prior to the 1973 oil crisis, the Seven Sisters controlled around 85 percent of the world's petroleum reserves. Since then, industry dominance has shifted to the OPEC cartel and ..

匿名 さんのコメント...

Iran, January–August 1973 - Office of the Historian - Department of State
https://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v27/ch1
Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume XXVII, Iran; Iraq, 1973–1976 ... Memorandum From the President's Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger) to President Nixon. Washington, January 19, 1973. Source: ...

David Ignatius: What a war in 1973 can tell us about Iran in 2013 - The ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/...1973...iran.../4d004788-2afb-1...
2013/10/03 - A similar wariness toward negotiations dominated Israeli thinking in 1973. America's secret diplomacy was led by Henry Kissinger, who was national security adviser to President Richard Nixon and then became his secretary ...

ixon's folly the white house and the 1970s oil price crisis - The Yale ...
historicalreview.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/mirzadegan.pdf
A Mirzadegan 著
Nixon, President Gerald Ford, and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger prioritized main- ... in the 1970s, he embarked on Iran's Fifth Development Plan (1973-77), Iran's version .... Iran. Even before the embargo in May 1973, Kissinger stated to.

Memcon between Shah of Iran, Kissinger, and Helms - Nixon Library
https://www.nixonlibrary.gov/virtuallibrary/.../072773_memcon.pd...
1973/07/27 - The Shah of Iran. Ardeshir Zahedi, Ambassador of Iran. Henry A. Kissinger,. Assistant to the. President. Richard Helms, U. S. Ambassador to Iran. Harold H. Saunders, NSC Staff. DA TE AND TIME: Friday, July 27, 1973.

匿名 さんのコメント...

Japanese Foreign Policy in Asia and the Pacific: Domestic Interests, ...
https://books.google.co.jp/books?isbn=0230107478
A. Miyashita, ‎Y. Sato - 2001 - ‎Social Science
First, both cases involved at least verbal U.S. threats, from the secretary of state in 1973 and the U.S. Congress in 1990. ... Prime Minister Tanaka definitely rejected Secretary Kissinger's pleas not to change Japan's position on the ... Japan at the same time shows no sign of severing its ties with Israel, even though Israel has so far refused to withdraw from all the territories occupied in the 1967 war. Thus ...

匿名 さんのコメント...

大蔵省昭和財政史編纂室編 昭和財政史 第四巻 臨時軍事費
東洋経済新報社
http://www.mof.go.jp/pri/publication/policy_history/series/senzen/04_01.pdf

"日本の財政は、太平洋戦争のようなああいう大戦には耐え得るものではなかったことを示している"