アナトール・カレツキー＠反GOD派

http://jp.reuters.com/article/jp_column/idJPKCN0J90HB20141125

コラム：英国の投資家・企業を襲う政治の大混乱＝カレツキー氏 | コラム | Reuters via kwout

アナトール・カレツキー
［２１日　ロイター］ - 英国は過去５年間、欧州大陸の混乱をよそに政治および経済の安定した国という地位を謳歌してきたが、もはやそうではなくなった。
今後英国は欧州で最も政治的に予測不可能な国になる公算が大きい。今年９月、スコットランド独立の是非を問う住民投票の実施という形で初めて登場してきたこのリスクは、２０日に行われた下院補欠選挙でキャメロン首相の与党・保守党が敗北したことで確かなものになっている。
しかし英国の安定が失われたことは、まだ資産価格、とりわけポンド相場には織り込まれていない。英国の経常赤字と財政赤字の対国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）比率は欧州最大であるにもかかわらず、ポンドはなお２００８年以降の最高値近辺で推移している。
英国は来年５月７日に結果が定かでない総選挙を控えているが、大半の投資家や企業は依然として、政治的な不確実性が経済状況に及ぼす影響は限られるかのように行動している。こうした自己満足的な態度は以下の３つの理由から誤りだと思われる。
１つ目は、総選挙後に英国には議会で多数派を形成できるような単一の政党もしくは連立勢力が存在しなくなり、文字通り統治不能になる恐れがあることだ。現段階の世論調査では、保守党も労働党も自由民主党と連立を組んだとしても過半数議席を確保できない見通しとなっている。
保守党と自民党、あるいは労働党と自民党の連立が多数派になれないわけは、以前は泡沫政党とみなされてきた勢力の躍進にある。現有６議席のスコットランド民族党（ＳＮＰ）は、主に労働党の議席を奪う形で２０─５０議席に増える見込み。反欧州連合（ＥＵ）の英独立党（ＵＫＩＰ）も十数議席を獲得する勢いがある。これに対して自民党は、現有５６議席を半分程度に減らすのはほぼ確実視されている。その結果、多数派の連立政権を樹立するには、民族主義的な政党を含めて３─４党が組むことが必要になる。
ＳＮＰが連立に加わる条件としてもう１回スコットランド独立を問う住民投票を実施するよう求めるのは間違いない。ＵＫＩＰは英国のＥＵ離脱を主張するとみられる。労働党もしくは保守党がこうした条件に同意するとは想像しがたい。
http://jp.reuters.com/article/jp_column/idJPKCN0J90HB20141125

Anatole Kaletsky (born June 1, 1952) is an economist and journalist based in the United Kingdom. He has written since 1976 for The Economist, The Financial Times and The Times of London before joining Reuters and The International Herald Tribune in 2012. He has been named Newspaper Commentator of the Year in the BBC’s What the Papers Say awards, and has twice received the British Press Award for Specialist Writer of the Year.
Kaletsky has been an economic consultant since 1997, providing policy analysis and asset allocation advice to over 800 financial institutions, multinational companies and international organisations through his company, GaveKal, which is co-run with Louis and Charles Gave. He was elected to the governing Council of the Royal Economic Society in 1998.

Early life

Kaletsky was born in 1952 in Moscow, USSR and also spent his childhood in Poland and Australia. He has lived in England and the US since 1966.

Education

Kaletsky was educated at Westminster City School, a former state grammar school in the City of Westminster in central London, followed by King's College at the University of Cambridge, where he graduated with a first class honours degree in Mathematics and at Harvard University, where he was a Kennedy Memorial Scholar and gained a master's degree in Economics.

Life and career

In 1976, Kaletsky joined The Economist, writing about business and finance. Three years later he moved to the Financial Times, working in a variety of posts including New York Bureau Chief, Washington Correspondent, International Economics Correspondent and Moscow Correspondent.
Beginning in 1990, Kaletsky was Economics Editor of The Times, and later became Editor-at-Large. In early 2012, Kaletsky began his new post, in the Analysis and Opinion section of the Reuters online newspaper, where he writes a weekly column. His articles also appear in print around the world in the International New York Times. Like many economists, he has made predictions that were contradicted by subsequent events, and this tendency was noted by the satirical magazine Private Eye. For example, Kaletsky wrote, "… I am one of the few economic commentators who has consistently made light of the anxieties about a “day of reckoning” for British homeowners and consumers …"^[1]
In 2010, Kaletsky suggested the emergence of a new form of capitalism, which he calls Capitalism 4.0. The book's writing was primarily influenced by the subprime mortgage crises of 2007 to 2009; and draws upon the pattern or the fallibility of capitalism.^[2] In his book Capitalism 4.0: The Birth of a New Economy in the Aftermath of Crisis, Kaletsky suggests that capitalism is "not a static set of institutions but an evolutionary system that reinvents and reinvigorates itself through crisis.^[3]"
In 2012, Kaletsky was appointed Chairman of the Institute for New Economic Thinking, a foundation established after the 2008 financial crisis with $200m of grants from George Soros, Paul Volcker, William Janeway, Jim Balsillie and other leading financiers. INET was set up post-crisis to challenge the mainstream assumptions in contemporary economic research.

On his Reuters' blog, Kaletsky appealed several times to the central banks to do "quantitative easing for the people".^[4]^[5] This solution would consist in enabling central banks to create debt-free money and inject it into the economy through direct cash transfers to the citizens, instead of injecting money through the banking system. Kaletsky claims this radical solution "may be another idea whose time has come".^[6]