Preliminary data suggests the pattern of spread is, so far, similar worldwide.
Analysis from the European Centre for Disease Control found 72 per
cent of early cases were in those under 40, while the US said the
majority of the 43 infections detected so far were in this same age
bracket. American authorities also revealed that 79 per cent of people
infected were vaccinated.
Prof Emmanuel Andre, head of the national reference lab for Covid-19
in Belgium, said the country is two weeks behind the UK, where omicron
cases jumped by 50 per cent on Monday and the first death with the
variant was confirmed.
“Most infections documented at this early stage are among younger age groups,” he told the Telegraph,
citing work, travel, sports competitions and schools as possible
explanations. But Prof Andre added that Christmas celebrations could
“amplify” omicron’s spread.
Dr Smallwood also warned that older, more vulnerable populations are
likely to be infected in the coming weeks as the variant's spread picks
up speed. This pattern is not especially new; it has been observed with
previous strains and waves, she added.
Dr Smallwood also suggested that data so far suggests there is a real increase in the number of breakthrough cases
in vaccinated individuals, compared to previous waves, but said it’s
too soon to confirm whether the variant triggers milder disease.
“It’s really important we don’t get ahead of ourselves in terms of
judging the severity of omicron,” Dr Smallwood said. “Because in terms
of the cases we’ve picked up, they’re in a healthier, more mobile,
younger, highly vaccinated population… and we’re not even that far into
the disease trajectory.”
Experts in South Africa, where omicron has been circulating for longer, have also urged caution on jumping to conclusions.
There have been some suggestions that the case fatality rate has dropped to 0.5 per cent, while early data paints a picture of hospitals treating fewer people with oxygen in intensive care.
But hospitalisations have risen steadily, with 4,200 admissions on
Monday – about six times the level reported three weeks ago.
Statisticians have warned against over-interpreting the limited data
available.
“In 10 days there will be a much clearer picture of how the severe the new variant is around Gauteng province,
as well as the evolution of mortality in the country,” Professor Tom
Moultrie, a demographer at the University of Cape Town, told the Telegraph, referring to the province at the epicentre of the country’s omicron wave.
Experts also pointed to Wednesday as a potentially significant
moment; the South African Medical Research Council is set to release
excess death figures for the last two weeks, and it’s hoped this may
shed more light on the situation.
1 件のコメント:
ウィルスは自分の命を粛々と総力戦で全うしてるだけですね
人間には屁理屈こねるのやらなんやら混在して
ウィルスのが実直じゃんか 見習え
ってずっと思ってたんだけど
生き残り易いのだけ生き残るのはどの生態でも共通でしたねwwアハッ
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