実は米国より酷いロシア版サブプライム問題

何故ロシア株がこの二ヶ月ほどで７割も下がってるのか、そろそろそのホントの理由がバレされはじめちゃったようです。（爆ｗ

ただ米国のＣＭＯと違いロシアの場合、不動産の代わりに高騰してた株で米国と同じようなことを金融工学（笑）を駆使してやりまくってたんですね。（爆ｗ

In Russia, a Struggle for Markets Just to Stay Open

By ANDREW E. KRAMER
Published: October 8, 2008
MOSCOW — At what point is a stock market no longer a functioning stock market?


Maxim Shienkov/European Pressphoto Agency
The Micex exchange on Wednesday. Trading was suspended after shares fell 14 percent in an hour, and it is to reopen Friday.

Related
Times Topics: Russia
Every day this week, regulators have had to halt trading on Russia’s main bourses, the world’s hardest-hit stock markets during the current crisis.

They closed the RTS and Micex exchanges three times on Monday — and the RTS still managed to lose 19.1 percent, its worst day. Trading reopened at 1 p.m. on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, it was suspended after shares collapsed 14 percent in the first hour.

Regulators said the Micex would reopen on Friday; the RTS was suspended indefinitely.

At issue are two problems. First, Russian companies used shares as collateral to borrow an untold amount of money. Second, the market decline is forcing a spiral of margin-call selling.

“It’s a little embarrassing for Russia,” Rory MacFarquhar, an economist at Goldman Sachs’s office here, said of the daily market closures.

Though the closures sow growing doubt among investors, the larger problem is the leveraging, which has revealed a fundamental and central flaw in the Russian market.

If mortgage-backed securities are the toxic asset in the United States, loans backed by shares are the problem in Russia. A bailout package of more than $200 billion by the Kremlin of loans and tax cuts has failed to stanch the sell-off.

“Russia does have its own problem now,” Mr. MacFarquhar said.

Indonesia, Ukraine and Romania also closed their exchanges on Wednesday, and a rate cut by six big central banks failed to reverse a global rout in stocks.

The Standard & Poor’s index for Russian stocks has fallen 53.2 percent this year as of Oct. 3 — the most of the 30 markets monitored by the S.& P.’s emerging-markets index. The second-biggest drop was in Indian stocks, which fell 51.8 percent.

Russia’s market has fallen further than any other, in spite of trade and budget surpluses, partly because of the unusual ownership structure that took hold after the breakup of the Soviet Union.

A few wealthy individuals, known as oligarchs, obtained huge stakes in companies as Russia privatized. In “loans-for-shares” auctions in the mid-1990s, they became owners of the big mining and petroleum companies in exchange for small loans to the government.

In this sense, Russia is in contrast, for example, to the United States, where large companies have a diffuse stockholder base. Typically, oligarchs hold more than 50 percent in the companies they control, with the remaining shares split between domestic and foreign investors.

As the market here swooned and commodity prices fell, risk-averse foreign investors pulled out. Russia’s war with Georgia and government attacks on private companies also scared away foreign investors. Meanwhile, the oligarchs had, to an unknown degree, pledged portions of their far larger stakes as collateral for loans.

As the smaller investors left and the market dropped, banks made margin calls. The fear is that now the shares that had been locked in the core holdings of the oligarchs will flood the market, at a time when there are no buyers. Just on Tuesday, regulators introduced more sweeping power to suspend trading on the stock exchanges to halt margin-call selling.

Unless trading is closed permanently, however, this measure will not solve the underlying problem.

“At some point, you must let market forces take their course,” Michael Kavanagh, a metals sector analyst at UralSib bank, said.

Also on Tuesday, President Dmitri A. Medvedev said he would submit a bill to the Duma that he said would simplify the rules for the seizure of collateral by creditors, which might encourage new lending.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/09/business/worldbusiness/09ruble.html?_r=1&ref=worldbusiness&oref=slogin

まあ大雑把にですが・・・


米国版サブプライム問題

不動産バブルを背景に大量に生み出された不動産ローンをパッケージしたＣＤＯウンコ。
大部分を海外に輸出。


ロシア版サブプライム問題

資源価格バブル・株価バブルを背景に大量に生み出された株・資源担保ローンをパッケージしたＣＤＯウンコ。
ただし輸出先は世界中のお仲間の反米勢力。
大部分が未だにロシア国内。

で、株がこんな短期間に７割、原油価格が４割以上下がっちゃお陀仏決定なわけです。（爆ｗ
米国の不動産ですら７割なんて下がってませんから。（ｗ
で、一説によると、ロシアが一夜にして吹っ飛ぶぐらい莫大な額をコレで調達してたと・・・
それもお仲間の世界中の反米勢力の連中から・・・
多分、リーマン辺りＣＤＳとかを組み込んだスキームで積極的に嵌めまくってたんじゃまいか？（爆ｗ

・・・と言う事で、

ルーブル紙くず化！ロシア大恐慌に突入！

とか騒いで見るテスト、、、（爆ｗ